Estimation of Cross-Immunity Between Drifted Strains of Influenza A/H3N2.
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Abstract |
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To determine the cross-immunity between influenza strains, we design a novel statistical method, which uses a theoretical model and clinical data on attack rates and vaccine efficacy among school children for two seasons after the 1968 A/H3N2 influenza pandemic. This model incorporates the distribution of susceptibility and the dependence of cross-immunity on the antigenic distance of drifted strains. We find that the cross-immunity between an influenza strain and the mutant that causes the next epidemic is 88%. Our method also gives estimates of the vaccine protection against the vaccinating strain, and the basic reproduction number of the 1968 pandemic influenza. |
Year of Publication |
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2018
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Journal |
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Bulletin of mathematical biology
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Date Published |
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2018
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ISSN Number |
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0092-8240
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DOI |
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10.1007/s11538-018-0395-5
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Short Title |
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Bull Math Biol
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